SC Freiburg2 - 3Bayern München
SC FreiburgHow did AI turn 10 trades into +$5384 profit?
Match Overview
SC Freiburg hosted Bayern München in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-3. Goals: J. Manzambi (46'), L. Holer (71'), T. Bischof (81'), T. Bischof (82'), L. Karl (90'), T. Bischof (90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 1 wave, achieving 90% precision with a net result of +$5383.73 (ROI: +91.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 1-0 at 59'. Bayern München made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Bayern München +1 and Over 1.5 and Bayern München 0 and Bayern München -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 26.4%, with a combined stake of $5892. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.1% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 47.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 9 of 10 trades won, netting +$5383.73.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München 0: AI saw 89.1% vs market's 41.2% (47.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München 0: AI saw 89.0% vs market's 41.2% (47.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München 0: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 43.5% (45.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München -0.5: AI saw 88.7% vs market's 55.6% (33.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Bayern München -0.5: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 54.1% (33.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2767.60 (ROI: +82.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$2616.13 (ROI: +102.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 29%–71% in SC Freiburg's deficit. SC Freiburg had 11 shots (4 on target) versus Bayern München's 20 (8 on target). Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.63 — Bayern München 1.97. Corners: 5-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +91.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2767.60.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 15.7% / 19.2% / 69.0% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals, leaning Under 3.5 when the match went Over.
The match between SC Freiburg and Bayern München concluded with a 2-3 victory for Bayern. In the 1x2 market, Bayern was correctly identified as the strong favorite with a 68.97% win probability, aligning with the actual outcome. However, the Asian Handicap of -1.25 saw SC Freiburg successfully cover, as Bayern's one-goal margin of victory (3-2) meant the +1.25 line was profitable for the underdog. The most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the closing line suggesting a lean towards Under 3.5 Goals with a 54.64% probability, the match exploded for 5 goals, resulting in a significant Over 3.5 outcome. This indicates a clear mispricing by bookmakers on the goal line, providing significant Closing Line Value for those who backed the Over.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +91.4% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2767.60.
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