SC Freiburg2 - 11. FC Heidenheim
SC FreiburgWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 44', 58', 71' — and still finish +$8123?
Match Overview
SC Freiburg hosted 1. FC Heidenheim in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-1. Goals: J. Manzambi (24'), B. Zivzivadze (58'), B. Zivzivadze (59'), M. Eggestein (83'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 4 waves, achieving 79% precision with a net result of +$8123.40 (ROI: +74.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.91; the Over/Under stayed at 3 with Over odds moving from 2.05 to 1.97.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 1-0 at 25'. null scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting 1. FC Heidenheim -0.5 and Over 2.5 and 1. FC Heidenheim -1.5 and 1. FC Heidenheim -1 and SC Freiburg. Average expected value was 26.5%, with a combined stake of $5508. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Heidenheim -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 41.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 10 trades won, netting +$6081.03. ### Wave 2 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 1-0 at 44'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting 1. FC Heidenheim -1 and 1. FC Heidenheim -0.5 and SC Freiburg and Over 2.5 and 1. FC Heidenheim -1.5. Average expected value was 26.6%, with a combined stake of $3434. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Heidenheim -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 44.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$3542.37. ### Wave 3 — Minute 58' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 1-0 at 58'. B. Zivzivadze scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting 1. FC Heidenheim 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Heidenheim 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 29.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 71' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after B. Zivzivadze's equalizer at 59'. SC Freiburg made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1. FC Heidenheim 0. Average expected value was 35.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Heidenheim 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 33.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Heidenheim -1: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 40.0% (44.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Heidenheim -1: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 36.4% (41.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Heidenheim -1: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 36.4% (41.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 71'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Heidenheim 0: AI saw 69.7% vs market's 36.4% (33.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 45.5% (30.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 5W/0L, +$3542.37 (ROI: +103.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$2630.53 (ROI: +69.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$1950.50 (ROI: +52.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in SC Freiburg's deficit. SC Freiburg had 16 shots (4 on target) versus 1. FC Heidenheim's 12 (2 on target). Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.58 — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.57. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +74.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$3542.37.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 58.5% / 23.6% / 21.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Totals market (O/U 3) displayed exceptional precision, resulting in a push and limiting clear value despite a slight 'Under' lean.
SC Freiburg secured a 2-1 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim in a match where the market's efficiency was remarkably high. The 1x2 market accurately priced Freiburg as favorites, reflecting their eventual home win. On the handicap market, Freiburg successfully covered the -0.75 line, aligning with the implied probability. The most striking aspect was the Totals (O/U 3) market, which closed with extremely tight probabilities (Over 50.76%, Under 51.81%). The match concluding with exactly 3 goals resulted in a push on this line, indicating exceptional market precision and limited definitive EV+ opportunities at closing for either side of the total.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +74.2% ROI on 19 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$3542.37.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.