Hamburger SV3 - 2Union Berlin
Hamburger SVWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 27' — and still finish +$189?
Match Overview
Hamburger SV hosted Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-2. Goals: L. Querfeld (28' pen), R. Konigsdorffer (35'), N. Capaldo (45'), R. Konigsdorffer (82'), A. Ilic (89'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$189.21 (ROI: +94.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.84 to 2.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hamburger SV -0.25. Average expected value was 7.0%, with a combined stake of $184. The sharpest edge was on Hamburger SV -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 7.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$174.95. ### Wave 2 — Minute 27' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 27'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hamburger SV +0.5. Average expected value was 9.9%, with a combined stake of $16. The sharpest edge was on Hamburger SV +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 9.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$14.26.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$189.21 (ROI: +94.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58%–42% in Hamburger SV's favor. Hamburger SV had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Union Berlin's 12 (5 on target). Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.82 — Union Berlin 2.11. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.6% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.5% / 31.6% / 30.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 47.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the 'Over 2.25 Goals' in the Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin match.
The Bundesliga clash between Hamburger SV and Union Berlin concluded with a 3-2 victory for the home side, resulting in a total of 5 goals. The 1x2 market correctly priced Hamburger SV as the slight favorite (40.49% implied win probability). However, the Asian Handicap market at -0.25 for Hamburger SV indicated a slight lean towards Union Berlin to cover (+0.25 handicap). Hamburger SV ultimately covered this line. The most glaring market inefficiency was found in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite the closing line favoring Under 2.25 goals with a 53.19% implied probability, the match exploded for 5 goals, creating a significant EV+ signal for the Over 2.25. This was a clear instance where the market sentiment failed to predict the high-scoring encounter.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.6% ROI on 2 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.