Hamburger SV3 - 2SC Freiburg
Hamburger SVWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 25', 28', 40', 64' — and still finish +$433?
Match Overview
Hamburger SV hosted SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-2. Goals: B. Jatta (14'), I. Matanovic (16'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 44% precision with a net result of +$433.45 (ROI: +9.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.06 to 2.09.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Hamburger SV. Average expected value was 7.7%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$364.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Matanovic's equalizer at 16'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Matanovic's equalizer at 16'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SC Freiburg 0. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on SC Freiburg 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 40'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 9.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 50.2% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 6.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 64'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting SC Freiburg -1 and Over 3.5 and SC Freiburg -0.5 and SC Freiburg -1.5 and Under 4.5. Average expected value was 39.9%, with a combined stake of $2884. The sharpest edge was on SC Freiburg -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 59.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$1569.45.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg -1.5: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 37.4% (59.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg -0.5: AI saw 81.3% vs market's 36.4% (44.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 40.0% (41.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg -1: AI saw 95.2% vs market's 58.8% (36.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$364.00 (ROI: +182.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/4L/1V, +$69.45 (ROI: +1.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47–53 in Hamburger SV's deficit. Hamburger SV had 13 shots (5 on target) versus SC Freiburg's 5 (3 on target). Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.63 — SC Freiburg 0.51. Corners: 2-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +9.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$364.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 35.5% / 27.2% / 40.2% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Hamburger SV for an outright win.
The Bundesliga fixture between Hamburger SV and SC Freiburg concluded with a 3-2 victory for the home side. The 1x2 market showed a significant inefficiency, pricing Hamburger SV's win probability at 35.46% (Odds 2.82) while favoring SC Freiburg (40.16%). This presented clear Closing Line Value (CLV) on the home team. Similarly, on the Asian Handicap line of 0, the market tilted towards SC Freiburg (54.05%), yet Hamburger SV not only won but covered the spread. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market on the 2.75 line demonstrated relative efficiency, with the 'Over' priced at 53.19% and the match ending with a total of 5 goals. The primary market misjudgment was the substantial undervaluation of Hamburger SV's outright win potential.
A positive result with +9.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$433.45. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$364.00.
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