Hamburger SV1 - 2RB Leipzig
Hamburger SVWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-157 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Hamburger SV hosted RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-2. Goals: F. Vieira (22'), Romulo Cardoso (36'), Y. Diomande (50'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-157.06 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.27 to 3.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 81' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** RB Leipzig leading 1-2 at 81'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Leipzig +1.25. Average expected value was 13.0%, with a combined stake of $157. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig +1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.8% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.45. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-157.06.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 81'** — Asian Handicap RB Leipzig +1.25: AI saw 53.8% vs market's 40.8% (13.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-157.06 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41%–59% in Hamburger SV's deficit. Hamburger SV had 6 shots (3 on target) versus RB Leipzig's 13 (5 on target). Expected goals: Hamburger SV 0.52 — RB Leipzig 2.7. Corners: 4-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 25.8% / 25.9% / 51.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Subtle undervaluation of RB Leipzig's decisive away win.
In the Bundesliga clash, RB Leipzig secured a 2-1 away victory against Hamburger SV. The 1x2 Market accurately identified RB Leipzig as the favorite with a 51.28% implied win probability. This outcome provided Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors backing the away side. The Asian Handicap market, set at -0.5 for RB Leipzig, also saw efficient pricing, with the away team's 2-1 win successfully covering the spread at a 51.02% implied probability. For the Totals Market, the Over/Under 3 goals line was precisely priced with a 51.28% implied probability for both outcomes. The match concluding with exactly 3 goals resulted in a push for this line, indicating significant market efficiency on the goal line. Overall, the market exhibited strong alignment with the actual results, hinting at a subtle undervaluation of RB Leipzig's decisive away win.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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