Hamburger SV

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1. FC Köln

Hamburger SV hosted 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-1. Goals: F. Vieira (39'), S. El Mala (45'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 3 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$2798.80 (ROI: +38.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 2.04; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 2.07; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.1 to 2.35.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting 1. FC Köln 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 14.3%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.8% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 19.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$2000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 43' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Hamburger SV leading 1-0 at 43'. F. Vieira scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting 1. FC Köln -0.5 and 1. FC Köln -1 and Hamburger SV and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 29.4%, with a combined stake of $4754. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.3% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 36.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$1298.80. ### Wave 3 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after S. El Mala's equalizer at 45'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln -1: AI saw 95.3% vs market's 58.8% (36.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln -1: AI saw 95.0% vs market's 58.8% (36.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln -0.5: AI saw 75.8% vs market's 41.2% (34.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln -0.5: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 41.2% (34.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$1456.60 (ROI: +40.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$1342.20 (ROI: +36.4%)

Possession was 45%–55% in Hamburger SV's deficit. Hamburger SV had 3 shots (1 on target) versus 1. FC Köln's 10 (2 on target). Expected goals: Hamburger SV 0.08 — 1. FC Köln 1.18. Corners: 0-8.