FSV Mainz 051 - 3Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05Why did AI enter 6 times at 0', 40', 47', 57', 67', 70' — and still finish $-3129?
Match Overview
FSV Mainz 05 hosted Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-3. Goals: A. Ilic (38'), S. Becker (48'), P. Tietz (57'), O. Burke (88'), J. Juranovic (90'). OddsFlow deployed 35 trades across 6 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-3128.76 (ROI: -16.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 2.02 to 1.85; the home moneyline shortened from 1.82 to 1.72.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FSV Mainz 05 -0.75. Average expected value was 27.2%, with a combined stake of $732. The sharpest edge was on FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-732.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 0-1 at 40'. A. Ilic scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting FSV Mainz 05 +0.5 and FSV Mainz 05. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $4533. The sharpest edge was on FSV Mainz 05 +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 34.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-4533.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 0-1 at 47'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Union Berlin 0 and FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 and FSV Mainz 05 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $6500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.7% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 23.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 3 of 13 trades won, netting $-2375.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Union Berlin leading 0-1 at 57'. P. Tietz scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Union Berlin and Union Berlin -1 and Under 4.5 and Draw and Union Berlin -0.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $5608. The sharpest edge was on Union Berlin -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.8% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 45.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 10 of 11 trades won, netting +$4978.24. ### Wave 5 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after P. Tietz's equalizer at 57'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after P. Tietz's equalizer at 57'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin -1: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 41.2% (45.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 57'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin -1: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 40.0% (41.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap FSV Mainz 05 +0.5: AI saw 89.5% vs market's 54.8% (34.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap FSV Mainz 05 +0.5: AI saw 89.5% vs market's 54.8% (34.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap FSV Mainz 05 +0.5: AI saw 89.4% vs market's 54.8% (34.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$487.50 (ROI: +69.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 13 trades, 7W/6L, +$130.97 (ROI: +1.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 12 trades, 6W/6L, $-273.23 (ROI: -4.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-732.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/6L, $-2742.00 (ROI: -66.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53–47 in FSV Mainz 05's favor. FSV Mainz 05 had 14 shots (3 on target) versus Union Berlin's 15 (9 on target). Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.5 — Union Berlin 2.67. Corners: 7-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -16.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$487.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 58.1% / 24.2% / 21.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued an outright Union Berlin away win.
The Bundesliga clash saw Union Berlin secure a convincing 3-1 away victory against FSV Mainz 05. The 1x2 market severely mispriced this fixture, with Mainz closing as strong favorites at an implied 58.14% win probability, while Union Berlin's actual win (21.05% implied) represented significant Closing Line Value (CLV). In the Asian Handicap market, Mainz was set at -0.75 (51.81% to cover), yet Union's dominant win meant the underdog easily covered, exposing another market inefficiency. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under 2.75 market showed strong efficiency; with 4 total goals, the 'Over' (implied 54.05% probability) proved correct, aligning with market sentiment. The most glaring error was the underestimation of Union Berlin's capacity to win outright.
A tough session at -16.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$487.50.
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