FSV Mainz 050 - 1SC Freiburg
FSV Mainz 05Why did AI enter 2 times at 25', 45' — and still finish $-2750?
Match Overview
FSV Mainz 05 hosted SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 0-1. Goals: L. Holer (47'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 2 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-2750.00 (ROI: -45.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 2.01; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.14 to 2.34.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 and FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg 0. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 45.9% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 8.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-925.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Over 1.5 and FSV Mainz 05 +0.5. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on FSV Mainz 05 +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 40.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 1 of 6 trades won, netting $-1825.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap FSV Mainz 05 +0.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 42.6% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap FSV Mainz 05 +0.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 42.6% (35.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 43.5% (26.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 43.5% (26.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/4L, $-775.00 (ROI: -25.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-1975.00 (ROI: -65.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–49% in FSV Mainz 05's favor. FSV Mainz 05 had 10 shots (3 on target) versus SC Freiburg's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 0.63 — SC Freiburg 0.57. Corners: 6-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -45.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-775.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.7% / 30.4% / 30.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 49.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated SC Freiburg's chances for an outright away win, offering substantial value.
SC Freiburg secured a 0-1 away victory against FSV Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga fixture. The 1x2 Market demonstrated a clear inefficiency in the 1x2 outcome. FSV Mainz 05 was the significant market favorite with a 42.74% implied win probability, while SC Freiburg's chances for an outright win were priced at a mere 30.12%. Freiburg's 0-1 victory delivered substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for those who backed the away side. With an Asian Handicap line of FSV Mainz 05 (-0.25), the market assigned a 49.75% probability for Mainz to cover. However, SC Freiburg's victory meant they comfortably covered the +0.25 handicap, representing a further miscalculation. The closing goal line was 2.5, with a market lean towards the Over (53.19% implied probability). The solitary goal scored resulted in the Under (1 goal vs 2.5 line), indicating another clear value signal for bettors who identified the potential for a low-scoring affair. The market profoundly underestimated SC Freiburg's ability to win outright and misjudged the goal total, yielding significant EV+ opportunities on the Away win and Under 2.5 goals.
A tough session at -45.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-775.00.
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