FSV Mainz 052 - 1Eintracht Frankfurt
FSV Mainz 05What went wrong? 6 trades, $-2000 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
FSV Mainz 05 hosted Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-1. Goals: P. Nebel (6'), N. Brown (20'), P. Nebel (89'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2000.00 (ROI: -52.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.87 to 2.02.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after N. Brown's equalizer at 20'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Eintracht Frankfurt 0 and Eintracht Frankfurt -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 23.7%, with a combined stake of $3791. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 36.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-2000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt -1: AI saw 88.0% vs market's 51.3% (36.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt -1: AI saw 88.2% vs market's 51.9% (36.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt 0: AI saw 64.1% vs market's 44.4% (19.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 42.4% vs market's 23.1% (19.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt 0: AI saw 63.4% vs market's 44.4% (18.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/2L/1V, $-1000.00 (ROI: -56.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/2L/1V, $-1000.00 (ROI: -49.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 30%–70% in FSV Mainz 05's deficit. FSV Mainz 05 had 8 shots (5 on target) versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.55 — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -52.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1000.00.
A tough session at -52.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1000.00.
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