FC St. Pauli2 - 1Werder Bremen
FC St. PauliWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 42', 68' — and still finish +$654?
Match Overview
FC St. Pauli hosted Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-1. Goals: H. Wahl (55'), J. Milosevic (62'), J. Fujita (70'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 3 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of +$653.97 (ROI: +30.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 1.9; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 1.93; the home moneyline shortened from 2.89 to 2.71.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting FC St. Pauli. Average expected value was 14.5%, with a combined stake of $966. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1810.69. ### Wave 2 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Werder Bremen. Average expected value was 14.4%, with a combined stake of $957. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-956.72. ### Wave 3 — Minute 68' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after J. Milosevic's equalizer at 62'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Werder Bremen 0. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Werder Bremen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.4% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$653.97 (ROI: +30.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in FC St. Pauli's deficit. FC St. Pauli had 4 shots (4 on target) versus Werder Bremen's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 0.21 — Werder Bremen 1.6. Corners: 1-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +30.8% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.4% / 0.3% / 0.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Over 2.25 Goals
FC St. Pauli secured a 2-1 victory over Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. The 1x2 market accurately priced FC St. Pauli as a slight favorite with an implied probability of 35.95%, aligning with the eventual home win. On the Asian Handicap (0 line), FC St. Pauli, with a 51.65% probability to cover, successfully did so with their one-goal margin. The most notable inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite a closing line of 2.25 goals with a slight market lean towards the Over (50.51%), the match concluded with 3 total goals, comfortably exceeding the line. This suggests bookmakers likely undervalued the likelihood of a higher-scoring game, presenting a clear Value Signal on the Over 2.25 Goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +30.8% ROI on 3 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.