FC St. Pauli1 - 3VfL Wolfsburg
FC St. PauliWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 10', 35', 45', 49', 53', 57' — and still finish $-921?
Match Overview
FC St. Pauli hosted VfL Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-3. Goals: K. Koulierakis (37'), A. Ceesay (57'), N. Vasilj (64' OG), D. Pejcinovic (80'). OddsFlow deployed 46 trades across 7 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-920.58 (ROI: -36.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 2.02; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.55 to 2.73.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting FC St. Pauli. Average expected value was 10.5%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.2% probability versus the market's implied 36.6% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.73. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting VfL Wolfsburg 0. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $134. The sharpest edge was on VfL Wolfsburg 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.9% probability versus the market's implied 53.5% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.87. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$114.38. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting VfL Wolfsburg 0 and Draw and Under 1.5 and Under 2.75 and FC St. Pauli +0.5 and Under 2.5 and VfL Wolfsburg. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $1767. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 76.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 10 of 32 trades won, netting $-847.96. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 45'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting VfL Wolfsburg. Average expected value was 4.2%, with a combined stake of $60. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$30.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 49'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting VfL Wolfsburg. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $60. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$30.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 53'. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC St. Pauli +1. Average expected value was 29.2%, with a combined stake of $255. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.1% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 27.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfL Wolfsburg leading 0-1 at 57'. A. Ceesay scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 33.6%, with a combined stake of $222. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 92.8% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 30.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-222.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 76.4% vs market's 42.1% (34.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 75.9% vs market's 42.1% (33.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 75.6% vs market's 42.1% (33.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli +0.5: AI saw 70.5% vs market's 37.4% (33.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli +0.5: AI saw 69.8% vs market's 37.4% (32.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$114.38 (ROI: +54.7%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 13 trades, 4W/8L/1V, $-312.62 (ROI: -41.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 13 trades, 4W/8L/1V, $-318.46 (ROI: -42.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 14 trades, 4W/9L/1V, $-378.88 (ROI: -47.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43–57 in FC St. Pauli's deficit. FC St. Pauli had 11 shots (2 on target) versus VfL Wolfsburg's 18 (10 on target). Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.52 — VfL Wolfsburg 3.4. Corners: 8-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -36.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$114.38.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 36.6% / 27.4% / 38.8% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Over 2.75 Goals was an EV+ opportunity, undervalued by the closing line.
VfL Wolfsburg secured a decisive 3-1 away victory against FC St. Pauli in the Bundesliga. The 1x2 market correctly identified VfL Wolfsburg as the slight favorite with a 38.76% implied win probability. The actual outcome aligned with this market lean. In the Asian Handicap market set at 0, VfL Wolfsburg was marginally favored to cover at 52.36%. Their 3-1 victory comfortably covered this line, indicating the market was reasonably efficient in predicting their ability to win outright. The most notable insight came from the Totals market, where the Closing Line for Goals Over/Under was 2.75. The market slightly favored the Over at 51.55% probability. However, with the match ending in 4 goals, the **Over 2.75** was a strong winner. This highlights a **Market Inefficiency** where the implied probability for the Over was undervalued relative to the high-scoring nature of the game, presenting an **EV+** opportunity.
A tough session at -36.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$114.38.
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