FC St. Pauli2 - 1VfB Stuttgart
FC St. Pauli1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
FC St. Pauli hosted VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-1. Goals: M. Saliakas (35'), D. Sinani (55' pen), J. Leweling (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$63.63 (ROI: +90.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.24 to 4.7.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 60' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** FC St. Pauli leading 2-0 at 60'. D. Sinani scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 0.0%, with a combined stake of $70. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$63.63.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$63.63 (ROI: +90.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32%–68% in FC St. Pauli's deficit. FC St. Pauli had 15 shots (7 on target) versus VfB Stuttgart's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.77 — VfB Stuttgart 0.88. Corners: 5-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.9% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 21.3% / 26.0% / 55.9% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 52.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimated FC St. Pauli in the 1x2 market.
In the Bundesliga clash, FC St. Pauli defied market expectations with a 2-1 victory over heavily favored VfB Stuttgart. The 1x2 market significantly underestimated St. Pauli's chances (21.28% implied probability), with Stuttgart closing as a strong market favorite (55.87%). This represents a substantial market inefficiency and a clear EV+ signal for backing the home side. On the Asian Handicap, St. Pauli successfully covered the +0.75 line, further highlighting the market's overestimation of Stuttgart. The Goals Over/Under 2.5 market, which leaned towards the Over (52.08%), proved largely efficient as the match concluded with 3 goals. The primary error lay in the outright winner market, where bookmakers failed to accurately price St. Pauli's potential.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +90.9% ROI on 1 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.