FC St. Pauli

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SC Freiburg

FC St. Pauli hosted SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-2. Goals: D. Sinani (24'), I. Matanovic (65'), C. Irie (74'), P. Lienhart (74'), I. Matanovic (78'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 5 waves, achieving 83% precision with a net result of +$4491.80 (ROI: +69.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.93; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.68 to 2.8.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC St. Pauli leading 1-0 at 25'. D. Sinani scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and SC Freiburg -1 and SC Freiburg 0. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $3425. The sharpest edge was on SC Freiburg -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 33.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$3041.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC St. Pauli leading 1-0 at 47'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting SC Freiburg -0.5. Average expected value was 37.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on SC Freiburg -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.9% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 35.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1675.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Matanovic's equalizer at 65'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 57.0% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 30.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 76' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 1-2 at 76'. P. Lienhart scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC St. Pauli +1. Average expected value was 26.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 24.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$387.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 81' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** SC Freiburg leading 1-2 at 81'. I. Matanovic scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC St. Pauli +1. Average expected value was 25.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.8% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 23.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$387.50.

- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg -0.5: AI saw 72.9% vs market's 37.4% (35.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg -0.5: AI saw 72.6% vs market's 37.4% (35.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg -1: AI saw 89.0% vs market's 55.6% (33.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap SC Freiburg -1: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 55.6% (33.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 57.0% vs market's 26.7% (30.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2246.40 (ROI: +69.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2245.40 (ROI: +69.9%)

Possession was 49%–51% in FC St. Pauli's deficit. FC St. Pauli had 10 shots (4 on target) versus SC Freiburg's 15 (6 on target). Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 0.72 — SC Freiburg 2.04. Corners: 3-2.