FC St. Pauli1 - 2FSV Mainz 05
FC St. PauliWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.8% / 29.1% / 38.8% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals.
FSV Mainz 05 secured a 2-1 away victory against FC St. Pauli in a Bundesliga clash. The 1x2 market accurately priced Mainz as slight favorites (38.76% implied probability), aligning with the actual outcome. On the Asian Handicap (0), Mainz was again marginally favored (53.76% to cover) and successfully did so, indicating reasonable pricing. However, the most notable inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. Despite the match concluding with 3 goals (Over 2.5), the closing line saw a market lean towards Under 2.5 goals (53.19% implied probability). This suggests a significant Market Inefficiency, presenting a clear Value Signal for bettors who identified the potential for more goals, contradicting the prevailing market sentiment.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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