FC St. Pauli0 - 5Bayern München
FC St. PauliWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-2231 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
FC St. Pauli hosted Bayern München in the Bundesliga, finishing 0-5. Goals: J. Musiala (9'), L. Goretzka (53'), M. Olise (55'), N. Jackson (66'), R. Guerreiro (89'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2231.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.5 to 1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3; the home moneyline shortened from 8.12 to 7.22.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bayern München leading 0-1 at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC St. Pauli +1.5. Average expected value was 26.0%, with a combined stake of $2231. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.9% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-2231.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli +1.5: AI saw 77.9% vs market's 53.3% (24.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli +1.5: AI saw 77.1% vs market's 53.3% (23.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli +1.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 53.3% (23.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-734.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-738.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-759.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 23%–77% in FC St. Pauli's deficit. FC St. Pauli had 6 shots (3 on target) versus Bayern München's 20 (8 on target). Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 0.49 — Bayern München 3.39. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-734.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 13.8% / 19.6% / 69.9% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Over 3 Goals was a strong Value Bet, underestimating Bayern's scoring prowess.
FC St. Pauli suffered a heavy 0-5 defeat against Bayern München. The 1x2 market correctly priced Bayern as the dominant favorite (69.93% implied win probability), which was validated by the decisive away victory. In the Handicap market, Bayern, with a -1.25 line, comfortably covered the spread by winning with a five-goal margin, despite only being given a 51.28% probability to do so by the market. However, the most significant inefficiency was found in the Totals (Over/Under) market. The closing line was 3 goals, with the market leaning slightly towards the Over (54.35% probability). With 5 goals scored, the "Over" was easily hit. This indicates a clear value signal for "Over" bets, as the market significantly underestimated Bayern's goal-scoring potential and the overall goal volume.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-734.00.
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