FC St. Pauli1 - 11. FC Köln
FC St. PauliWhy did AI enter 7 times at 25', 37', 46', 62', 74', 77', 83' — and still finish +$3674?
Match Overview
FC St. Pauli hosted 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-1. Goals: K. Mets (69'), L. Waldschmidt (86' pen). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 7 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$3674.17 (ROI: +54.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting 1. FC Köln 0 and 1. FC Köln and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 12.7%, with a combined stake of $3272. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 22.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-303.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.0% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1050.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$937.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 62'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 11.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 61.9% — a 8.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.615. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$307.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 74' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC St. Pauli leading 1-0 at 74'. K. Mets scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1. FC Köln 0. Average expected value was 31.4%, with a combined stake of $849. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 29.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$785.33. ### Wave 6 — Minute 77' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC St. Pauli leading 1-0 at 77'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1. FC Köln -1. Average expected value was 44.9%, with a combined stake of $555. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.9% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 42.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$471.75. ### Wave 7 — Minute 83' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC St. Pauli leading 1-0 at 83'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1. FC Köln -1. Average expected value was 40.5%, with a combined stake of $608. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.9% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 38.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$425.60.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln -1: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 54.1% (42.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln -1: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 58.8% (38.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 74'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln 0: AI saw 81.4% vs market's 51.9% (29.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln 0: AI saw 74.0% vs market's 51.9% (22.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln 0: AI saw 73.1% vs market's 51.9% (21.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$1339.10 (ROI: +49.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1257.08 (ROI: +89.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$1078.00 (ROI: +40.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in FC St. Pauli's deficit. FC St. Pauli had 12 shots (6 on target) versus 1. FC Köln's 10 (1 on target). Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.7 — 1. FC Köln 1.25. Corners: 8-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +54.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1339.10.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 33.3% / 30.2% / 39.2% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 55.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the draw in the 1x2 odds.
The Bundesliga clash between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln concluded in a 1-1 draw. Our OddsFlow model highlights a significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 market, where the bookmakers heavily favored an away win (39.22% implied probability) while severely underpricing the eventual draw outcome (30.21%). This presented clear EV+ value on the draw. In the Asian Handicap market (line 0), the market also leaned towards 1. FC Köln covering (55.25%), which ultimately resulted in a push due to the draw. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market (line 2.5) accurately predicted the outcome, with the 'Under' (53.76% implied probability) hitting as only two goals were scored.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +54.2% ROI on 12 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1339.10.
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