FC Augsburg

2 - 5

VfB Stuttgart

FC Augsburg hosted VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-5. Goals: D. Undav (12'), T. Tomas (29'), N. Nartey (31'), F. Rieder (57'), D. Undav (58'), A. Kade (71'), A. Kade (72'), E. Demirovic (83'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 1 wave, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-2864.20 (ROI: -40.4%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.58 to 3.41.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 0-1 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting FC Augsburg +1.5 and VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg +0.5. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $7085. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 30.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting $-2864.20.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg +1.5: AI saw 88.0% vs market's 57.1% (30.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg +1.5: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 57.1% (30.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg +1.5: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 57.1% (30.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Moneyline VfB Stuttgart: AI saw 74.7% vs market's 52.4% (22.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 27'** — Moneyline VfB Stuttgart: AI saw 74.2% vs market's 52.4% (21.8pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-886.25 (ROI: -36.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-901.89 (ROI: -37.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-1076.06 (ROI: -47.8%)

Possession was 40%–60% in FC Augsburg's deficit. FC Augsburg had 13 shots (7 on target) versus VfB Stuttgart's 13 (8 on target). Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.2 — VfB Stuttgart 3.77. Corners: 2-5.