FC Augsburg2 - 1FC St. Pauli
FC AugsburgWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-514 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
FC Augsburg hosted FC St. Pauli in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-1. Goals: D. Sinani (32' pen), M. Gregoritsch (41'), M. Gregoritsch (59'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-514.17 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 2.06; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** FC St. Pauli leading 0-1 at 38'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC St. Pauli -0.25. Average expected value was 5.5%, with a combined stake of $514. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-514.17.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-514.17 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 44%–56% in FC Augsburg's deficit. FC Augsburg had 11 shots (5 on target) versus FC St. Pauli's 15 (4 on target). Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.3 — FC St. Pauli 2.22. Corners: 5-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.8% / 31.9% / 22.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.5% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market underestimated the likelihood of Over 2.0 Goals.
FC Augsburg secured a 2-1 victory over FC St. Pauli. The 1X2 market correctly identified FC Augsburg as the favorite (48.78% implied probability), aligning with the eventual home win. On the Asian Handicap market, Augsburg successfully covered the -0.5 line, despite the market pricing their cover at 48.54%. The most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. With the closing line at Over/Under 2.0 goals, the market slightly favored the Under at 51.81%. However, the match concluded with 3 goals, delivering a clear Over result. This indicates a strong Value Signal on the Over 2.0 goals, where bookmakers underestimated the potential for a higher-scoring encounter.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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