FC Augsburg3 - 1Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC AugsburgWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 31', 42' — and still finish $-1024?
Match Overview
FC Augsburg hosted Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Gregoritsch (24'), M. Gregoritsch (28'), R. Fellhauer (42'), M. Gregoritsch (72'), G. Reyna (90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-1024.09 (ROI: -13.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline shortened from 2.31 to 1.99.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.25. Average expected value was 21.6%, with a combined stake of $540. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.2% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 5.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-540.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Augsburg leading 1-0 at 31'. M. Gregoritsch scored moments ago. 4 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Borussia Mönchengladbach -1 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 30.3%, with a combined stake of $4699. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Mönchengladbach -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 39.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 0 of 7 trades won, netting $-1746.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** FC Augsburg leading 1-0 at 42'. R. Fellhauer scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 33.6%, with a combined stake of $2210. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 93.9% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 30.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1261.91.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Mönchengladbach -1: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 47.6% (39.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Mönchengladbach -1: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 47.6% (38.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Mönchengladbach -1: AI saw 85.6% vs market's 47.6% (38.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Mönchengladbach -1: AI saw 86.2% vs market's 48.8% (37.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 42'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 93.9% vs market's 63.7% (30.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$49.67 (ROI: +1.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, +$36.24 (ROI: +1.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-540.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-570.00 (ROI: -38.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39–61 in FC Augsburg's deficit. FC Augsburg had 15 shots (10 on target) versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 13 (2 on target). Expected goals: FC Augsburg 2.46 — Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.66. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -13.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$49.67.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 50.3% / 24.8% / 27.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Over 3.25 goals.
FC Augsburg secured a decisive 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach in this Bundesliga fixture. In the 1x2 market, the closing lines correctly identified Augsburg as the slight favorite. Augsburg also successfully covered the -0.5 Asian Handicap, aligning with the pre-match market sentiment. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. With 4 goals scored, the Over 3.25 goals line, priced at an implied probability of 52.36% by our model, proved to be a significant EV+ opportunity for bettors. The actual outcome strongly favored the Over, indicating bookmakers underestimated the goal-scoring potential in this fixture. Smart bettors leveraging advanced analytics would have identified this value signal.
A tough session at -13.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$49.67.
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