FC Augsburg2 - 21899 Hoffenheim
FC AugsburgWhy did AI enter 4 times at 47', 60', 72', 76' — and still finish +$5162?
Match Overview
FC Augsburg hosted 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-2. Goals: A. Claude-Maurice (11'), M. Gregoritsch (14'), R. Hranac (35'), B. Toure (42'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 4 waves, achieving 62% precision with a net result of +$5161.93 (ROI: +69.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 47' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after B. Toure's equalizer at 42'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting 1899 Hoffenheim +0.5 and 1899 Hoffenheim and Draw and FC Augsburg +0.5 and 1899 Hoffenheim -1 and 1899 Hoffenheim -0.5. Average expected value was 17.6%, with a combined stake of $5927. The sharpest edge was on 1899 Hoffenheim -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 50.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 6 of 10 trades won, netting +$4223.10. ### Wave 2 — Minute 60' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 60'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Augsburg +0.5. Average expected value was 10.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 7.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$425.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 72' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 72'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1899 Hoffenheim -0.5. Average expected value was 34.2%, with a combined stake of $527. The sharpest edge was on 1899 Hoffenheim -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 32.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$513.83. ### Wave 4 — Minute 76' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 76'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1899 Hoffenheim 0. Average expected value was 46.9%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on 1899 Hoffenheim 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 44.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap 1899 Hoffenheim -1: AI saw 95.6% vs market's 45.5% (50.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Asian Handicap 1899 Hoffenheim -1: AI saw 95.3% vs market's 45.5% (49.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Asian Handicap 1899 Hoffenheim 0: AI saw 81.1% vs market's 36.4% (44.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 72'** — Asian Handicap 1899 Hoffenheim -0.5: AI saw 82.9% vs market's 50.6% (32.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap 1899 Hoffenheim -0.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 50.6% (31.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$3240.30 (ROI: +89.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1921.63 (ROI: +50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 35%–65% in FC Augsburg's deficit. FC Augsburg had 17 shots (7 on target) versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.9 — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.05. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +69.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$3240.30.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 28.6% / 26.0% / 48.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimation of the Draw in the 1x2 Market
The Bundesliga fixture between FC Augsburg and 1899 Hoffenheim concluded in a 2-2 draw. Our OddsFlow AI model identified a significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. The closing line implied an away win probability of 48.08% for Hoffenheim, while the draw was priced at a comparatively low 26.04% implied probability. Despite Hoffenheim being the clear market favorite, the actual outcome was a draw, indicating substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on the level outcome. In the Handicap market, Hoffenheim was set at -0.5, with Augsburg +0.5 having a 54.05% implied probability to cover. The draw meant Augsburg +0.5 covered comfortably. The Totals market (O/U 3) saw 4 goals scored, resulting in the Over hitting. While the market slightly leaned Over (52.36% implied probability), the most pronounced mispricing was the undervaluation of the draw in the outright market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +69.3% ROI on 13 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$3240.30.
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