FC Augsburg2 - 01. FC Köln
FC AugsburgWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 25' — and still finish +$791?
Match Overview
FC Augsburg hosted 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-0. Goals: R. Ribeiro (55'), A. Claude-Maurice (90'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$791.28 (ROI: +112.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting FC Augsburg -0.25. Average expected value was 3.5%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$190.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting FC Augsburg. Average expected value was 4.8%, with a combined stake of $501. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$601.28.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$791.28 (ROI: +112.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46%–54% in FC Augsburg's deficit. FC Augsburg had 13 shots (3 on target) versus 1. FC Köln's 10 (2 on target). Expected goals: FC Augsburg 0.98 — 1. FC Köln 0.45. Corners: 6-8.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +112.9% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.7% / 28.7% / 30.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly misjudged the Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)
FC Augsburg secured a 2-0 victory over 1. FC Köln. The 1x2 market correctly identified FC Augsburg as the favorite with an implied probability of 43.67%, and they delivered the outright win. On the Asian Handicap (-0.25), Augsburg, with a 50.51% chance to cover, comfortably did so by winning with a two-goal margin. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under 2.5) market. The closing line leaned heavily towards the Over, with a 53.76% implied probability, while the match concluded with only 2 goals. This outcome (Under 2.5) presented a clear Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for astute bettors, indicating a significant market mispricing.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +112.9% ROI on 2 trades.
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