Eintracht Frankfurt2 - 2VfB Stuttgart
Eintracht FrankfurtWhy did AI enter 5 times at 10', 28', 35', 38', 49' — and still finish +$105?
Match Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt hosted VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-2. Goals: C. Andres (10'), N. Nartey (45'), J. Burkardt (72' pen), J. Burkardt (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 5 waves, achieving 55% precision with a net result of +$104.70 (ROI: +16.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.89 to 1.99; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.33 to 3.54.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart +1 and Eintracht Frankfurt +1.5. Average expected value was 21.3%, with a combined stake of $128. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.6% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 20.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-7.30. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 0-1 at 28'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Eintracht Frankfurt +1. Average expected value was 15.4%, with a combined stake of $60. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 12.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$72.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 0-1 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Eintracht Frankfurt +1. Average expected value was 17.3%, with a combined stake of $120. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.2% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 14.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$150.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 0-1 at 38'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $120. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.5% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-120.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 0-2 at 49'. N. Nartey scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5 and Under 3.75. Average expected value was 38.3%, with a combined stake of $220. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 29.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$10.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 3.75: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 47.2% (29.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 49'** — Over/Under Under 3.75: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 47.2% (29.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 11'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt +1.5: AI saw 76.6% vs market's 56.3% (20.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap VfB Stuttgart +1: AI saw 59.5% vs market's 42.6% (16.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt +1: AI saw 59.2% vs market's 44.4% (14.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$64.70 (ROI: +34.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$20.00 (ROI: +8.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$20.00 (ROI: +8.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57–43 in Eintracht Frankfurt's favor. Eintracht Frankfurt had 16 shots (7 on target) versus VfB Stuttgart's 13 (7 on target). Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.46 — VfB Stuttgart 1.16. Corners: 6-5.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +16.2% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$64.70.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 28.3% / 22.7% / 51.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.75 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw.
In the Bundesliga clash between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart (2-2), the 1x2 market significantly mispriced the draw outcome. The OddsFlow model identified a mere 22.73% implied probability for a draw, while the market heavily favored VfB Stuttgart to win at 51.81%. The actual draw result indicates a clear Market Inefficiency and a strong Value Signal for the draw. On the Asian Handicap (0.5), the market slightly favored Stuttgart to cover (-0.5), but the draw meant Frankfurt (+0.5) covered. The Total Goals (3.75) market saw a slight lean towards the Under (51.55%), yet the match delivered 4 goals, going Over. However, the most pronounced error was the underestimation of the draw's likelihood.
A positive result with +16.2% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$104.70. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$64.70.
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