Eintracht Frankfurt1 - 3RB Leipzig
Eintracht FrankfurtWhy did AI enter 7 times at 25', 31', 41', 45', 48', 66', 77' — and still finish +$831?
Match Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt hosted RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-3. Goals: Y. Diomande (27'), H. Larsson (34'), A. Nusa (70'), C. Harder (81'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 7 waves, achieving 57% precision with a net result of +$830.55 (ROI: +7.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.28 to 3.65.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting RB Leipzig 0 and Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 and RB Leipzig. Average expected value was 17.2%, with a combined stake of $3045. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 26.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$351.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** RB Leipzig leading 0-1 at 31'. Y. Diomande scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt +1 and Over 2.5 and Draw and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 22.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1133.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after H. Larsson's equalizer at 34'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 30.0% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after H. Larsson's equalizer at 34'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 13.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$333.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after H. Larsson's equalizer at 34'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Eintracht Frankfurt +1. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 11.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 66'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 and RB Leipzig 0 and Eintracht Frankfurt +1 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 19.9%, with a combined stake of $2722. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-673.95. ### Wave 7 — Minute 77' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** RB Leipzig leading 1-2 at 77'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting RB Leipzig. Average expected value was 42.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on RB Leipzig (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 38.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$687.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 77'** — Moneyline RB Leipzig: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 42.1% (38.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 40.0% (30.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5: AI saw 68.5% vs market's 42.6% (26.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5: AI saw 68.2% vs market's 42.6% (25.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 47.6% (22.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$762.00 (ROI: +19.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$55.00 (ROI: +1.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$13.55 (ROI: +0.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–49% in Eintracht Frankfurt's favor. Eintracht Frankfurt had 15 shots (5 on target) versus RB Leipzig's 19 (8 on target). Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 — RB Leipzig 1.84. Corners: 4-6.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +7.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$762.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 27.4% / 24.4% / 51.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The significant market lean towards Under 3.5 goals despite the match ending with 4 goals.
RB Leipzig secured a convincing 3-1 away victory against Eintracht Frankfurt. The 1x2 market accurately priced RB Leipzig as the market favorite with a 51.28% implied probability, which materialized into a win. On the Asian Handicap of 0.5, the market offered balanced odds, but RB Leipzig successfully covered the -0.5 spread with their two-goal margin. The most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. Despite the match finishing with 4 goals, the closing line for Over/Under 3.5 goals showed a clear **market lean towards Under** at 53.19%. This provided significant **Closing Line Value (CLV)** on the Over, indicating a strong **Value Signal** missed by bookmakers and the general market sentiment.
A positive result with +7.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$830.55. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$762.00.
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