Borussia Mönchengladbach

2 - 0

FC St. Pauli

Borussia Mönchengladbach hosted FC St. Pauli in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-0. Goals: K. Stoger (37'), F. Honorat (63'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 3 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-950.00 (ROI: -15.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.84 to 1.96.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting FC St. Pauli 0 and FC St. Pauli -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 19.9%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.2% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 26.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Borussia Mönchengladbach leading 1-0 at 37'. K. Stoger scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Mönchengladbach and Over 1.5 and FC St. Pauli -1. Average expected value was 28.5%, with a combined stake of $3344. The sharpest edge was on FC St. Pauli -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 45.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$2050.00.

- **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli -1: AI saw 93.8% vs market's 48.8% (45.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli -1: AI saw 93.8% vs market's 48.8% (45.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli 0: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 40.0% (26.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC St. Pauli 0: AI saw 65.8% vs market's 40.0% (25.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Moneyline Borussia Mönchengladbach: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 44.4% (21.4pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-475.00 (ROI: -15.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-475.00 (ROI: -15.0%)

Possession was 41%–59% in Borussia Mönchengladbach's deficit. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 8 shots (3 on target) versus FC St. Pauli's 8 (1 on target). Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.41 — FC St. Pauli 0.51. Corners: 1-2.