Borussia Mönchengladbach1 - 1Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia MönchengladbachWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-188 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach hosted Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-1. Goals: Y. Engelhardt (10'), P. Sander (44' OG), A. Garcia (44'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-187.50 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.32 to 3.76.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Borussia Mönchengladbach leading 1-0 at 15'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5. Average expected value was 7.5%, with a combined stake of $188. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.5% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 7.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-187.50.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-187.50 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39%–61% in Borussia Mönchengladbach's deficit. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 8 shots (5 on target) versus Bayer Leverkusen's 9 (2 on target). Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.48 — Bayer Leverkusen 0.75. Corners: 2-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 26.6% / 27.1% / 49.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervalued Draw in 1x2 Market
The Bundesliga clash between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market, priced Leverkusen as significant favorites with a 49.26% implied win probability, while the draw stood at a lower 27.1%. This presented a clear market inefficiency as the draw materialized, indicating an underestimation of Mönchengladbach's resilience and the potential for a stalemate. In the Asian Handicap market, the closing line of Leverkusen -0.5 saw Mönchengladbach +0.5 favored to cover with a 53.19% probability, which proved accurate as the draw meant Gladbach successfully covered the spread. For the Total Goals market, the line was set at 2.75, with the Under at 52.63% implied probability. The actual outcome of 2 goals fell comfortably under this line, demonstrating the market's efficiency in anticipating a lower-scoring affair. Overall, the most notable value signal was the neglected draw probability in the 1x2 market.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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