Borussia Dortmund4 - 0SC Freiburg
Borussia DortmundWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 70.4% / 19.7% / 13.5% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market slightly underestimated the robust offensive output, providing value on the Over 3.0 goals.
Borussia Dortmund secured a dominant 4-0 victory over SC Freiburg. The 1x2 market accurately priced Dortmund as the clear favorite, and the home side delivered, aligning with the 70.42% implied win probability. In the Handicap market, Dortmund at -1.25 was backed to cover with a 52.36% probability, which they comfortably achieved with a four-goal margin. The most notable inefficiency appeared in the Totals market. Despite the closing line for Over 3 goals indicating a 52.08% probability, the final score of 4-0 showcased a stronger offensive performance than the market's implied odds fully accounted for. This suggests that while the market correctly leaned towards the Over, the true potential for a high-scoring affair was slightly undervalued, presenting Closing Line Value for those who took the Over.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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