Borussia Dortmund2 - 0FC Augsburg
Borussia DortmundWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 39' — and still finish +$3404?
Match Overview
Borussia Dortmund hosted FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-0. Goals: K. Adeyemi (13'), L. Reggiani (59'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 2 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$3404.31 (ROI: +43.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.25 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 2.1; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.41 to 1.52.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Borussia Dortmund leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting FC Augsburg -1 and Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg -1.5. Average expected value was 30.7%, with a combined stake of $5128. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 41.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$2222.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Borussia Dortmund leading 1-0 at 39'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg -1.5 and FC Augsburg -1. Average expected value was 34.0%, with a combined stake of $2648. The sharpest edge was on FC Augsburg -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 44.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1181.91.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1.5: AI saw 94.4% vs market's 50.0% (44.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1.5: AI saw 92.6% vs market's 51.3% (41.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1: AI saw 94.4% vs market's 53.3% (41.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1.5: AI saw 91.9% vs market's 51.3% (40.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap FC Augsburg -1: AI saw 92.6% vs market's 55.6% (37.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1181.91 (ROI: +44.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1117.85 (ROI: +43.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$1104.55 (ROI: +43.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62%–38% in Borussia Dortmund's favor. Borussia Dortmund had 16 shots (5 on target) versus FC Augsburg's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.12 — FC Augsburg 0.56. Corners: 12-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1181.91.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.8% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1181.91.
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