Borussia Dortmund3 - 2Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia DortmundWhy did AI enter 9 times at 0', 15', 25', 29', 40', 44', 54', 59', 63' — and still finish +$9355?
Match Overview
Borussia Dortmund hosted Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-2. Goals: C. Y. Uzun (2'), S. Guirassy (42'), N. Schlotterbeck (45'), S. Inacio (72'), J. Burkardt (87'). OddsFlow deployed 26 trades across 9 waves, achieving 73% precision with a net result of +$9355.26 (ROI: +65.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.53 to 1.74.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund -0.75. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $651. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Dortmund -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.8% — a 12.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.93. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$302.71. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Eintracht Frankfurt leading 0-1 at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund +0.5. Average expected value was 34.0%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Dortmund +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 30.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$145.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Eintracht Frankfurt leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund +0.5 and Over 3.5 and Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Dortmund 0. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $5331. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Dortmund +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.3% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 30.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$5969.75. ### Wave 4 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Eintracht Frankfurt leading 0-1 at 29'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Dortmund 0 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 13.6%, with a combined stake of $1523. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Dortmund 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.8% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 20.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2012.80. ### Wave 5 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Eintracht Frankfurt leading 0-1 at 40'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.3% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 44' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after null's equalizer at 42'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Borussia Dortmund -0.5 and Eintracht Frankfurt -1 and Under 4.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 21.0%, with a combined stake of $4500. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.4% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 43.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 4 of 9 trades won, netting +$725.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 54' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Borussia Dortmund leading 2-1 at 54'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 8.5%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 51.6% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 6.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 8 — Minute 59' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Borussia Dortmund leading 2-1 at 59'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Eintracht Frankfurt -0.5. Average expected value was 12.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$450.00. ### Wave 9 — Minute 63' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Borussia Dortmund leading 2-1 at 63'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Eintracht Frankfurt 0. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Eintracht Frankfurt 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt -1: AI saw 81.4% vs market's 38.5% (43.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt -1: AI saw 73.9% vs market's 38.5% (35.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Eintracht Frankfurt -1: AI saw 73.8% vs market's 38.5% (35.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Dortmund +0.5: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 58.0% (30.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Dortmund +0.5: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 58.0% (30.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 7W/1L/1V, +$4246.95 (ROI: +82.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 6W/1L/1V, +$3172.80 (ROI: +68.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1487.80 (ROI: +42.2%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$302.71 (ROI: +46.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$145.00 (ROI: +72.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57–43 in Borussia Dortmund's favor. Borussia Dortmund had 13 shots (8 on target) versus Eintracht Frankfurt's 9 (4 on target). Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.76 — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.14. Corners: 6-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +65.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$4246.95.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.5% / 22.7% / 23.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market accurately predicted and offered value on Over 3.25 Goals.
Borussia Dortmund's 3-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt saw a tightly contested affair where the market's expectations largely aligned with the outcome. In the 1x2 market, Dortmund closed as the favorite with an implied probability of 57.47% and secured the win. The handicap market, set at Dortmund -0.75 (51.81% probability to cover), also saw Dortmund clear the spread with their 3-2 scoreline. The most significant insight came from the Goals Over/Under market. With a closing line of 3.25, the "Over" was priced at 54.05% probability. The match produced 5 goals, comfortably exceeding the line. This indicates that the market, driven by sophisticated models like OddsFlow, accurately anticipated a high-scoring fixture, providing clear Closing Line Value for those who backed the "Over".
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +65.9% ROI on 26 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$4246.95.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.