Borussia Dortmund0 - 1Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia DortmundWhy did AI enter 2 times at 34', 42' — and still finish +$1752?
Match Overview
Borussia Dortmund hosted Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, finishing 0-1. Goals: R. Andrich (42'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 2 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$1751.75 (ROI: +33.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 2.05; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.89 to 2.04.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 and Bayer Leverkusen 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 10.9%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Bayer Leverkusen 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.7% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 19.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 4 of 5 trades won, netting +$1950.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Borussia Dortmund +0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 18.9%, with a combined stake of $2770. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Dortmund +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.3% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 32.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-198.25.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Dortmund +0.5: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 49.4% (32.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Dortmund +0.5: AI saw 82.0% vs market's 49.4% (32.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen 0: AI saw 56.7% vs market's 37.4% (19.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Bayer Leverkusen 0: AI saw 55.7% vs market's 41.2% (14.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 52.3% vs market's 42.1% (10.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$941.45 (ROI: +35.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$810.30 (ROI: +30.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–49% in Borussia Dortmund's favor. Borussia Dortmund had 13 shots (1 on target) versus Bayer Leverkusen's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.15 — Bayer Leverkusen 0.48. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +33.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$941.45.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 49.0% / 25.5% / 28.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 48.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market heavily favored Borussia Dortmund, despite Bayer Leverkusen securing an outright away win.
Borussia Dortmund hosted Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga fixture, ending in a 0-1 victory for the away side. The 1x2 market showed a significant market inefficiency, with Borussia Dortmund closing as a strong favorite at an implied probability of 49.02% for a home win. However, Bayer Leverkusen secured the outright victory, delivering substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for those backing the away team at 28.41% implied probability. The Asian Handicap market, set at -0.5 for Dortmund, correctly leaned towards Leverkusen covering (implied probability of 53.19% for Leverkusen +0.5 to cover). In the Goals Over/Under market, with a line of 3.25, the actual total of 1 goal confirmed the market's lean towards the Under (54.35% implied probability), showcasing its relative efficiency in predicting goal totals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +33.2% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$941.45.
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