Bayern München4 - 2VfB Stuttgart
Bayern MünchenWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 32' — and still finish +$4001?
Match Overview
Bayern München hosted VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, finishing 4-2. Goals: C. Fuhrich (21'), R. Guerreiro (31'), R. Guerreiro (32'), N. Jackson (33'), A. Davies (37'), H. Kane (52'), C. Andres (89'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 2 waves, achieving 71% precision with a net result of +$4000.75 (ROI: +43.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 2.05; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.75 to 4.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** VfB Stuttgart leading 0-1 at 25'. C. Fuhrich scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bayern München -0.5. Average expected value was 7.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Bayern München -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.8% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 5.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1075.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after R. Guerreiro's equalizer at 32'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Over 3.5 and VfB Stuttgart 0 and Bayern München and Over 4.5 and VfB Stuttgart -1.5 and VfB Stuttgart -1. Average expected value was 20.5%, with a combined stake of $8184. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.1% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 39.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 10 of 15 trades won, netting +$2925.75.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap VfB Stuttgart -1.5: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 47.6% (39.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap VfB Stuttgart -1.5: AI saw 86.6% vs market's 47.6% (38.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap VfB Stuttgart -1: AI saw 87.2% vs market's 50.6% (36.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 34'** — Over/Under Over 4.5: AI saw 71.3% vs market's 42.1% (29.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 34'** — Over/Under Over 4.5: AI saw 70.3% vs market's 42.1% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$1841.60 (ROI: +51.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/2L, +$1392.70 (ROI: +38.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/0L/1V, +$766.45 (ROI: +37.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67%–33% in Bayern München's favor. Bayern München had 28 shots (9 on target) versus VfB Stuttgart's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: Bayern München 4.13 — VfB Stuttgart 1.14. Corners: 11-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1841.60.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.7% / 0.2% / 0.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1.5 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 4 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant Underestimation of Total Goals (Over 4.0)
The match between Bayern München and VfB Stuttgart concluded 4-2, resulting in a home win for Bayern. The 1x2 market accurately predicted Bayern as the clear favorite. In the Handicap Asian market, Bayern München covered the -1.5 line, despite the market giving them only a 48.78% chance to do so, indicating slight Closing Line Value (CLV) on Bayern -1.5. However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. With 6 goals scored, the 'Over 4 goals' hit comfortably, yet the market showed a slight lean towards 'Under 4 goals' with a 52.08% implied probability. This represents a significant mispricing, suggesting a strong Value Signal for 'Over' bets at the closing line.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.6% ROI on 17 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1841.60.
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