Bayer Leverkusen4 - 1RB Leipzig
Bayer LeverkusenWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.8% / 24.8% / 33.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the 'Over 3.5 Goals' total.
Bayer Leverkusen secured a commanding 4-1 victory over RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. The 1x2 market correctly identified Leverkusen as the favorite (44.84% win probability). On the Asian Handicap (-0.25), the market slightly favored RB Leipzig to cover (+0.25) with a 51.28% probability, which proved incorrect as Leverkusen easily covered the spread with a 3-goal margin. The most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. Despite the closing line being set at 3.5 goals, with a slight market lean towards the Under (51.81%), the match concluded with 5 goals. This significant discrepancy highlights a clear EV+ signal for 'Over 3.5 Goals', demonstrating where bookmakers got it wrong.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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