1899 Hoffenheim1 - 0Werder Bremen
1899 Hoffenheim2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
1899 Hoffenheim hosted Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-0. Goals: B. Toure (26'). Werder Bremen received a red card (Y. Sugawara, 5'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$407.96 (ROI: +94.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $434. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$407.96.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$407.96 (ROI: +94.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 72–28 in 1899 Hoffenheim's favor. 1899 Hoffenheim had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Werder Bremen's 11 (2 on target). Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.41 — Werder Bremen 1.08. Corners: 8-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 67.1% / 19.1% / 17.4% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Massive Overvaluation of Over 3.5 Goals
1899 Hoffenheim secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Werder Bremen. The 1x2 market accurately predicted a home win, with OddsFlow's model assigning a 67.11% probability. In the Handicap market, Hoffenheim (-1.25) failed to cover the spread with their single-goal margin, meaning Werder Bremen (+1.25) was the winning bet; the market showed a slight lean towards Werder Bremen covering (+1.25) with a 52.36% probability, which aligned with the outcome. However, the most significant inefficiency was observed in the Totals market (Over/Under 3.5). Despite the OddsFlow model indicating a 51.55% chance for Over 3.5 goals, the match ended with a total of only 1 goal. This represents a strong Value Signal on Under 3.5 goals, as the market severely overestimated the scoring potential of this fixture, providing significant Closing Line Value for Under bettors.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.0% ROI on 2 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.