1. FC Köln1 - 2Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC KölnWhy did AI enter 4 times at 34', 43', 47', 83' — and still finish +$2258?
Match Overview
1. FC Köln hosted Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, finishing 1-2. Goals: P. Schick (43' pen), P. Schick (52'), L. Waldschmidt (78'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 4 waves, achieving 58% precision with a net result of +$2258.13 (ROI: +24.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25; the home moneyline shortened from 3.95 to 3.85.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and 1. FC Köln +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $2714. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.8% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 11.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-2714.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bayer Leverkusen leading 0-1 at 43'. P. Schick scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Bayer Leverkusen and Over 2.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 13.3%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Bayer Leverkusen (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 67.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 22.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$3233.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Bayer Leverkusen leading 0-1 at 47'. P. Schick scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 3.5 and Bayer Leverkusen 0. Average expected value was 15.8%, with a combined stake of $2121. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.8% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 16.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$560.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 83' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Bayer Leverkusen leading 1-2 at 83'. L. Waldschmidt scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1. FC Köln +1. Average expected value was 28.8%, with a combined stake of $1347. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.4% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 27.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1178.63.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln +1: AI saw 80.4% vs market's 53.3% (27.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln +1: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 53.3% (27.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap 1. FC Köln +1: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 53.3% (26.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen: AI saw 67.8% vs market's 45.5% (22.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 82.8% vs market's 66.7% (16.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$1385.63 (ROI: +33.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 5W/3L/1V, +$897.50 (ROI: +19.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-25.00 (ROI: -6.2%)
Match Statistics
1. FC Köln had 22 shots (8 on target) versus Bayer Leverkusen's 2 (1 on target). Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 2.41 — Bayer Leverkusen 0.24. Corners: 0-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1385.63.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 26.0% / 24.4% / 52.6% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market accurately priced the Under 3.25 goals, showcasing strong efficiency and providing a clear value signal.
The match between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen concluded 1-2, with Bayer Leverkusen securing the away win. Our post-match analysis reveals a largely efficient market across the 1x2, Handicap, and Totals lines. The market accurately priced Bayer Leverkusen as the outright winner (52.63% probability) and the -0.5 handicap cover (52.36% probability). Crucially, the Over/Under 3.25 goals market showed remarkable efficiency, with the 'Under' outcome having a 53.48% probability. With only 3 goals scored, the market's lean towards the Under was a precise call, demonstrating strong Closing Line Value for those who followed the 'Under' signal.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.6% ROI on 19 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1385.63.
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