1. FC Köln

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Borussia Mönchengladbach

1. FC Köln hosted Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-3. Goals: J. Castrop (1'), S. El Mala (4'), R. Ache (7'), P. Sander (20'), J. Castrop (60'), E. Martel (84'). 1. FC Köln received a red card (E. Martel, 86'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 6 waves, achieving 82% precision with a net result of +$6440.30 (ROI: +108.3%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.99 to 2.04; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after P. Sander's equalizer at 20'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Mönchengladbach 0. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $1060. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 20.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after P. Sander's equalizer at 20'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 38'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting 1. FC Köln +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on 1. FC Köln +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.3% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 18.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2525.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 42'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Borussia Mönchengladbach -1. Average expected value was 41.9%, with a combined stake of $680. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Mönchengladbach -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 40.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$629.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 49' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2, 49'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Borussia Mönchengladbach -1 and Over 4.5. Average expected value was 33.6%, with a combined stake of $1207. The sharpest edge was on Borussia Mönchengladbach -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.1% probability versus the market's implied 52.6% — a 40.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.9. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1186.30. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 2-3) **Context:** Borussia Mönchengladbach leading 2-3 at 60'. J. Castrop scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 5.5. Average expected value was 24.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1100.00.

- **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Mönchengladbach -1: AI saw 93.1% vs market's 52.6% (40.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Borussia Mönchengladbach -1: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 51.9% (40.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Over 4.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Over/Under Over 5.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Over/Under Over 5.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/0L/1V, +$3679.00 (ROI: +114.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 4W/0L/1V, +$2761.30 (ROI: +101.1%)

Possession was 52%–48% in 1. FC Köln's favor. 1. FC Köln had 12 shots (5 on target) versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.55 — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.12. Corners: 5-2.