1. FC Köln2 - 21899 Hoffenheim
1. FC KölnWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
1. FC Köln hosted 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, finishing 2-2. Goals: R. Ache (15'), O. Kabak (45'), A. Kramaric (60'), S. El Mala (63'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.06 to 3.47.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** 1. FC Köln leading 1-0 at 28'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting 1. FC Köln -0.5. Average expected value was 0.4%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 36%–64% in 1. FC Köln's deficit. 1. FC Köln had 9 shots (4 on target) versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 18 (6 on target). Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.07 — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.47. Corners: 3-10.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 28.8% / 26.5% / 48.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market undervalued the potential for a high-scoring game; Over 3.0 Goals offered strong Closing Line Value.
The fixture between 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim concluded in a 2-2 draw, resulting in a total of 4 goals. Analyzing the 1x2 market, our model assigned a 26.53% probability to the draw, which materialized. While the market correctly identified Hoffenheim as the slight favorite (48.08% win probability), the draw was priced fairly. In the Asian Handicap market, Hoffenheim was set at -0.5, implying Köln at +0.5. With the match ending in a draw, the Köln +0.5 handicap was a winning bet, aligning with our model's 54.64% probability for them to cover. The most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. The closing line was set at Over/Under 3.0 goals. Our model indicated a 52.36% probability for the Over. With 4 actual goals scored, the Over 3.0 goals bet was a clear winner, demonstrating that the market slightly undervalued the potential for a high-scoring encounter. This presented a significant Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors who backed the Over.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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