1. FC Heidenheim3 - 3VfB Stuttgart
1. FC HeidenheimWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-1039 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
1. FC Heidenheim hosted VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-3. Goals: C. Fuhrich (5'), E. Dinkci (20'), E. Demirovic (30'), A. Ibrahimovic (34' pen), M. Mittelstadt (45' pen), E. Demirovic (73'), S. Conteh (82'), D. Undav (88'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1038.80 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.04; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 38' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** 1. FC Heidenheim leading 2-1 at 38'. A. Ibrahimovic scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting VfB Stuttgart. Average expected value was 15.6%, with a combined stake of $1039. The sharpest edge was on VfB Stuttgart (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 40.2% probability versus the market's implied 34.8% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.875. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1038.80.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1038.80 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 34%–66% in 1. FC Heidenheim's deficit. 1. FC Heidenheim had 10 shots (6 on target) versus VfB Stuttgart's 12 (7 on target). Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 2 — VfB Stuttgart 2.29. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 21.7% / 22.7% / 58.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 48.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimated goal total in the Over/Under 3.25 market.
The match between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart ended in a thrilling 3-3 draw. The 1x2 market, as per our ML model, heavily favored an Away Win (58.82% probability) with the Draw priced at 22.68%. This proved to be a significant market inefficiency, as the match finished level. In the Asian Handicap market, VfB Stuttgart was set at a -0.75 goal line with a 53.19% probability to cover. However, the draw meant 1. FC Heidenheim (+0.75) comfortably covered the spread. The most pronounced inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite the closing line set at 3.25 goals with the market leaning towards the Under (54.35% probability), the match produced a high-scoring 6 goals, representing substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for Over bettors. The market dramatically underestimated the goal-scoring potential of this fixture.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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