1. FC Heidenheim3 - 1Union Berlin
1. FC HeidenheimWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 75' — and still finish +$714?
Match Overview
1. FC Heidenheim hosted Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Honsak (9'), M. Honsak (36'), L. Querfeld (75'), B. Zivzivadze (79'), B. Zivzivadze (90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 2 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$714.00 (ROI: +13.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the home moneyline shortened from 3.23 to 2.92.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** 1. FC Heidenheim leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Union Berlin -0.5 and 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin 0 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 19.2%, with a combined stake of $4236. The sharpest edge was on Union Berlin -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 27.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 4 of 8 trades won, netting $-661.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 75' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** 1. FC Heidenheim leading 2-1 at 75'. L. Querfeld scored moments ago. Union Berlin made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Union Berlin -1.5. Average expected value was 57.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Union Berlin -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 55.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1375.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin -1.5: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 42.1% (55.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin -1.5: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 42.1% (54.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin -0.5: AI saw 72.8% vs market's 45.5% (27.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin -0.5: AI saw 72.2% vs market's 45.5% (26.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Union Berlin 0: AI saw 72.5% vs market's 54.1% (18.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$363.00 (ROI: +13.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$351.00 (ROI: +13.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45%–55% in 1. FC Heidenheim's deficit. 1. FC Heidenheim had 7 shots (4 on target) versus Union Berlin's 10 (3 on target). Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.85 — Union Berlin 0.94. Corners: 3-5.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +13.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$363.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.3% / 28.6% / 39.8% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 55.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued 1. FC Heidenheim's probability of winning outright.
1. FC Heidenheim secured a decisive 3-1 victory over Union Berlin. The 1x2 market presented a clear inefficiency; despite Heidenheim's eventual comfortable win, Union Berlin was the slight market favorite at closing with a 39.84% implied probability, compared to Heidenheim's 34.25%. This indicated a strong EV+ signal on the home side. In the Handicap (HDP 0) market, Heidenheim also outperformed expectations, covering the line with a 2-goal margin while the market again leaned slightly towards Union Berlin. The Totals (Over/Under 2.5) market saw 4 goals, confirming the "Over" outcome. While the market did show a slight lean towards the Over (52.63% probability), the extent of Heidenheim's attacking performance and the total goals count still offered decent value.
A positive result with +13.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$714.00. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$363.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.