Vitoria

2 - 0

Internacional

Vitoria hosted Internacional in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-0. Goals: Rene (29'), D. Tarzia (90'). Internacional received a red card (A. Bernabei, 89'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 6 waves, achieving 19% precision with a net result of $-4133.00 (ROI: -53.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 2.15; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.9 to 3.06.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Internacional. Average expected value was 30.9%, with a combined stake of $39. The sharpest edge was on Internacional (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 52.8% probability versus the market's implied 39.4% — a 13.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.54. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-39.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional 0. Average expected value was 17.2%, with a combined stake of $311. The sharpest edge was on Internacional 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.2% probability versus the market's implied 55.9% — a 11.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.79. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-311.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Vitoria leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 37.8%, with a combined stake of $1700. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.9% — a 24.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.89. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1700.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Vitoria leading 1-0 at 40'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 16.3%, with a combined stake of $1018. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 14.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-509.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 52' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Vitoria leading 1-0 at 52'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Internacional -0.5 and Internacional 0. Average expected value was 32.4%, with a combined stake of $2607. The sharpest edge was on Internacional -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.7% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2607.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Vitoria leading 1-0 at 62'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Vitoria. Average expected value was 6.6%, with a combined stake of $2000. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1033.00.

- **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -0.5: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 41.2% (37.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 52'** — Asian Handicap Internacional -0.5: AI saw 78.1% vs market's 41.2% (36.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 52.9% (24.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 52.9% (24.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 52.9% (24.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-39.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-311.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/5L/1V, $-1859.00 (ROI: -51.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 2W/5L/1V, $-1924.00 (ROI: -52.1%)

Possession was 43–57 in Vitoria's deficit. Vitoria had 6 shots (3 on target) versus Internacional's 20 (2 on target). Expected goals: Vitoria 0.72 — Internacional 2.01. Corners: 3-6.