Vitoria4 - 1Coritiba
VitoriaWhat went wrong? 4 trades, $-3188 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Vitoria hosted Coritiba in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 4-1. Goals: Rene (15'), Ze Vitor (28'), Pedro Rocha (45'), D. Tarzia (55'), Erick (58' pen), Erick (61' pen). Coritiba received a red card (Tiago Coser, 26'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-3188.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.8 to 1.84; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.97 to 2.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Vitoria leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Coritiba -1 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 31.9%, with a combined stake of $3188. The sharpest edge was on Coritiba -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 40.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-3188.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Coritiba -1: AI saw 90.3% vs market's 50.0% (40.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Coritiba -1: AI saw 89.7% vs market's 50.0% (39.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 69.5% vs market's 50.0% (19.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 68.9% vs market's 50.0% (18.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1579.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1609.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Vitoria had 10 shots (7 on target) versus Coritiba's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1579.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1579.00.
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