Vasco DA Gama

0 - 3

RB Bragantino

Vasco DA Gama hosted RB Bragantino in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 0-3. Goals: Rodriguinho (45'), I. Pitta (60'), Fernando Santos (77'). OddsFlow deployed 45 trades across 5 waves, achieving 49% precision with a net result of $-162.88 (ROI: -1.2%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 2.06.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting RB Bragantino. Average expected value was 30.0%, with a combined stake of $25. The sharpest edge was on RB Bragantino (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 35.0% probability versus the market's implied 25.5% — a 9.5 percentage point gap at odds of 3.92. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$66.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 13' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 13'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Bragantino 0. Average expected value was 29.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on RB Bragantino 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 27.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$350.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and RB Bragantino 0 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 18.8%, with a combined stake of $4433. The sharpest edge was on RB Bragantino 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.6% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 16.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** 6 of 15 trades won, netting $-846.08. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Vasco DA Gama +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 2.25 and RB Bragantino. Average expected value was 49.6%, with a combined stake of $6145. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.1% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 37.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** 7 of 21 trades won, netting $-3240.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** RB Bragantino leading 0-2 at 60'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Vasco DA Gama +1.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 34.1%, with a combined stake of $3305. The sharpest edge was on Vasco DA Gama +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 57.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$3507.00.

- **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Vasco DA Gama +1.5: AI saw 97.7% vs market's 40.0% (57.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Vasco DA Gama +1.5: AI saw 97.7% vs market's 40.0% (57.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 60'** — Asian Handicap Vasco DA Gama +1.5: AI saw 97.6% vs market's 40.0% (57.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 87.1% vs market's 49.8% (37.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 86.9% vs market's 49.8% (37.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$350.00 (ROI: +175.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$66.70 (ROI: +266.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 14 trades, 7W/7L, $-148.53 (ROI: -3.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 14 trades, 6W/8L, $-211.05 (ROI: -4.6%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 14 trades, 6W/8L, $-220.00 (ROI: -4.7%)

Possession was 60–40 in Vasco DA Gama's favor. Vasco DA Gama had 14 shots (6 on target) versus RB Bragantino's 20 (9 on target). Expected goals: Vasco DA Gama 1.61 — RB Bragantino 3.28. Corners: 5-5.