Vasco DA Gama1 - 1Mirassol
Vasco DA GamaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 35', 45' — and still finish $-537?
Match Overview
Vasco DA Gama hosted Mirassol in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: Igor Formiga (30'), A. Gomez (80'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of $-537.46 (ROI: -14.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 2.02; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.2 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.9 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mirassol leading 0-1 at 35'. Igor Formiga scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Mirassol. Average expected value was 29.7%, with a combined stake of $1924. The sharpest edge was on Mirassol (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 79.1% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 23.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-1924.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Mirassol leading 0-1 at 45'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 41.6%, with a combined stake of $1843. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 78.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 29.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$1386.54.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 48.8% (29.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 78.4% vs market's 48.8% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Mirassol: AI saw 79.1% vs market's 55.6% (23.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Mirassol: AI saw 79.1% vs market's 55.9% (23.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Moneyline Mirassol: AI saw 79.1% vs market's 55.9% (23.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-66.44 (ROI: -3.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-471.02 (ROI: -22.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in Vasco DA Gama's favor. Vasco DA Gama had 20 shots (4 on target) versus Mirassol's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Vasco DA Gama 1.83 — Mirassol 0.77. Corners: 9-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -14.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-66.44.
A tough session at -14.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-66.44.
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