Vasco DA Gama1 - 0Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA GamaWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-1099 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Vasco DA Gama hosted Atletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: Thiago Mendes (37'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1099.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 1.88; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.87 to 2.04; the home moneyline shortened from 2.04 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense -0.5. Average expected value was 44.4%, with a combined stake of $1099. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.8% probability versus the market's implied 49.8% — a 22.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.01. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1099.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense -0.5: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 49.8% (22.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-1099.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55–45 in Vasco DA Gama's favor. Vasco DA Gama had 16 shots (6 on target) versus Atletico Paranaense's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Vasco DA Gama 2.22 — Atletico Paranaense 0.66. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.