Vasco DA Gama

0 - 1

Atletico-MG

Vasco DA Gama hosted Atletico-MG in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: Vitor Hugo (32'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 5 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$922.91 (ROI: +17.6%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.1 to 1.95.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico-MG -0.5. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $57. The sharpest edge was on Atletico-MG -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 15.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$53.95. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico-MG 0. Average expected value was 31.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Atletico-MG 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 29.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$350.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 0-1 at 35'. Vitor Hugo scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Atletico-MG and Vasco DA Gama +0.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 14.3%, with a combined stake of $3341. The sharpest edge was on Vasco DA Gama +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.8% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 25.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 6 of 8 trades won, netting +$1162.29. ### Wave 4 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 0-1 at 64'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 80' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Atletico-MG leading 0-1 at 80'. Vasco DA Gama made 5 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 34.5%, with a combined stake of $655. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.6% probability versus the market's implied 62.9% — a 24.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.59. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$356.67.

- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Atletico-MG 0: AI saw 65.5% vs market's 36.4% (29.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Vasco DA Gama +0.5: AI saw 72.8% vs market's 47.6% (25.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 62.9% (24.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Vasco DA Gama +0.5: AI saw 72.7% vs market's 48.2% (24.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 87.6% vs market's 63.3% (24.3pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 7W/2L, +$453.66 (ROI: +15.9%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$350.00 (ROI: +175.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, +$65.30 (ROI: +3.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$53.95 (ROI: +94.6%)

Possession was 60–40 in Vasco DA Gama's favor. Vasco DA Gama had 25 shots (8 on target) versus Atletico-MG's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Vasco DA Gama 1.29 — Atletico-MG 0.39. Corners: 3-4.