Sao Paulo

1 - 1

Botafogo

Sao Paulo hosted Botafogo in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: Luciano (4'), J. Barrera (90'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 78% precision with a net result of +$4295.00 (ROI: +90.1%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.91 to 1.85; the home moneyline shortened from 2.03 to 1.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.8% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 13.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 39' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sao Paulo leading 1-0 at 39'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 7.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 58.7% probability versus the market's implied 53.2% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.88. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sao Paulo leading 1-0 at 48'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Botafogo -1. Average expected value was 51.1%, with a combined stake of $2557. The sharpest edge was on Botafogo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.1% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 49.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$3835.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 61' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sao Paulo leading 1-0 at 61'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$799.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 83' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sao Paulo leading 1-0 at 83'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Botafogo -1. Average expected value was 44.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Botafogo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.8% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 42.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$170.00.

- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Botafogo -1: AI saw 89.1% vs market's 40.0% (49.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Botafogo -1: AI saw 88.5% vs market's 40.0% (48.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Botafogo -1: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 40.0% (48.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 83'** — Asian Handicap Botafogo -1: AI saw 96.8% vs market's 54.1% (42.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 67.8% vs market's 54.1% (13.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1556.50 (ROI: +114.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1537.00 (ROI: +114.1%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$1041.50 (ROI: +56.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$170.00 (ROI: +85.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 54–46 in Sao Paulo's favor. Sao Paulo had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Botafogo's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.57 — Botafogo 0.58. Corners: 3-3.