Sao Paulo1 - 2Atletico Paranaense
Sao PauloWhy did AI enter 3 times at 19', 40', 45' — and still finish +$1821?
Match Overview
Sao Paulo hosted Atletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: Artur (19'), Leozinho (46'), Leozinho (51'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 3 waves, achieving 65% precision with a net result of +$1821.20 (ROI: +24.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 2.02; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.15 to 2.2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 19' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 19'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense 0. Average expected value was 35.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.6% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 33.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$220.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sao Paulo leading 1-0 at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense 0 and Sao Paulo and Over 1.5 and Over 2.25. Average expected value was 41.2%, with a combined stake of $4050. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.1% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 44.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 10 of 12 trades won, netting +$2276.20. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Sao Paulo leading 1-0 at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 17.5%, with a combined stake of $3050. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 2 of 7 trades won, netting $-675.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 41.2% (44.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 41.2% (44.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 49.0% (37.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 49.0% (36.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 51.3% (34.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 6W/3L, +$829.88 (ROI: +23.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 6W/4L, +$771.32 (ROI: +21.6%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$220.00 (ROI: +110.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 70–30 in Sao Paulo's favor. Sao Paulo had 16 shots (3 on target) versus Atletico Paranaense's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Sao Paulo 0.85 — Atletico Paranaense 1.74. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$829.88.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +24.9% ROI on 20 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$829.88.
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