Santos2 - 0RB Bragantino
SantosWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 67' — and still finish $-536?
Match Overview
Santos hosted RB Bragantino in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-0. Goals: Neymar (45'), A. Frias (76'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-536.00 (ROI: -18.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.85; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.28 to 2.15.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Bragantino -0.25. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $536. The sharpest edge was on RB Bragantino -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 11.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-536.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Santos leading 1-0 at 67'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting RB Bragantino -1. Average expected value was 49.9%, with a combined stake of $2435. The sharpest edge was on RB Bragantino -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.4% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 48.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap RB Bragantino -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 49.4% (48.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap RB Bragantino -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 49.4% (47.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap RB Bragantino -0.25: AI saw 59.6% vs market's 48.5% (11.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-536.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52–48 in Santos's favor. Santos had 9 shots (3 on target) versus RB Bragantino's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Santos 1.26 — RB Bragantino 0.66. Corners: 7-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -18.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$0.00.
A tough session at -18.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$0.00.
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