Santos0 - 3Coritiba
SantosWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 10', 39' — and still finish +$913?
Match Overview
Santos hosted Coritiba in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 0-3. Goals: Breno Lopes (5'), Breno Lopes (20'), Josue (38' pen), Josue (39' pen). Santos received a red card (A. Barreal, 73'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 3 waves, achieving 80% precision with a net result of +$912.85 (ROI: +72.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.96 to 1.82; the home moneyline shortened from 1.8 to 1.7.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 37.2%, with a combined stake of $57. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 19.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$52.85. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Coritiba leading 0-1 at 10'. Breno Lopes scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Santos -0.5. Average expected value was 38.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Santos -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 36.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Coritiba leading 0-2 at 39'. Josue scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 14.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 61.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 12.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1060.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Santos -0.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 45.5% (36.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Over 2.25: AI saw 70.5% vs market's 51.3% (19.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 0'** — Over/Under Over 2.25: AI saw 70.5% vs market's 54.9% (15.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 61.2% vs market's 48.5% (12.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 39'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 60.8% vs market's 48.5% (12.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$530.00 (ROI: +106.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$530.00 (ROI: +106.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$52.85 (ROI: +92.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64–36 in Santos's favor. Santos had 12 shots (3 on target) versus Coritiba's 9 (5 on target). Expected goals: Santos 1.61 — Coritiba 2.13. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$530.00.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.6% ROI on 5 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$530.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.