Santos2 - 2Chapecoense-sc
SantosWhy did AI enter 2 times at 67', 76' — and still finish +$252?
Match Overview
Santos hosted Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-2. Goals: Neymar (36'), Marcinho (51'), Joao Ananias (62' OG), Neymar (88' pen), Neymar (89' pen). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 2 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$252.00 (ROI: +7.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.73 to 1.62; the home moneyline shortened from 1.48 to 1.33.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Chapecoense-sc leading 1-2 at 67'. Joao Ananias scored moments ago. Santos made 6 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 3.75 and Chapecoense-sc. Average expected value was 9.9%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 12.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-625.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 76' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Chapecoense-sc leading 1-2 at 76'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.75 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 30.1%, with a combined stake of $1200. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 21.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$877.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 76'** — Over/Under Over 3.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.3% (21.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Over/Under Over 3.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 48.3% (21.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 56.5% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 76'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 56.5% (13.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Over/Under Over 3.75: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 57.1% (12.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/1L/2V, +$126.00 (ROI: +7.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/1L/2V, +$126.00 (ROI: +7.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64–36 in Santos's favor. Santos had 20 shots (7 on target) versus Chapecoense-sc's 5 (3 on target). Expected goals: Santos 1.65 — Chapecoense-sc 0.86. Corners: 12-1.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +7.9% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$126.00.
A positive result with +7.9% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$252.00. Top performer: Active Trader at +$126.00.
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