Remo1 - 2Atletico Paranaense
RemoWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 16', 35', 46' — and still finish +$1394?
Match Overview
Remo hosted Atletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: Jaja (14'), B. Zapelli (26'), K. Viveros (45'), K. Viveros (53'), K. Viveros (54'), Leozinho (89'). Remo received a red card (Jaja, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 64% precision with a net result of +$1394.40 (ROI: +37.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline shortened from 2.94 to 2.44.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25. Average expected value was 18.5%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 16' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Remo leading 1-0 at 16'. Jaja scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense 0. Average expected value was 31.8%, with a combined stake of $350. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 24.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$392.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Remo leading 1-0 at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atletico Paranaense 0. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $1239. The sharpest edge was on Atletico Paranaense 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 20.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1189.44. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after K. Viveros's equalizer at 45'. Remo down to 10 men (Jaja red card 45'). Remo made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.25 and Draw. Average expected value was 23.7%, with a combined stake of $2098. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 46.8% probability versus the market's implied 30.8% — a 16.0 percentage point gap at odds of 3.25. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-177.04.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 16'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 68.8% vs market's 44.4% (24.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 71.5% vs market's 51.0% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 71.5% vs market's 51.0% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 71.5% vs market's 51.0% (20.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Atletico Paranaense 0: AI saw 71.5% vs market's 51.0% (20.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$513.72 (ROI: +30.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$498.68 (ROI: +29.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$392.00 (ROI: +112.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43–57 in Remo's deficit. Remo had 3 shots (2 on target) versus Atletico Paranaense's 15 (8 on target). Expected goals: Remo 0.34 — Atletico Paranaense 1.95. Corners: 3-10.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +37.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$513.72.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +37.7% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$513.72.
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