RB Bragantino

2 - 0

Vitoria

RB Bragantino hosted Vitoria in the Brazilian Serie A, finishing 2-0. Goals: Tiago Volpi (40' pen), Tiago Volpi (41' pen), Lucas Barbosa (90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 4 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of $-92.90 (ROI: -0.9%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.84; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5.

### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Vitoria. Average expected value was 148.3%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.0% probability versus the market's implied 17.3% — a 25.7 percentage point gap at odds of 5.78. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Vitoria -0.5 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 18.6%, with a combined stake of $2072. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.5% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 22.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-272.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Vitoria -1 and Under 2.5 and Vitoria -0.5 and Over 1.5 and Vitoria -1.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 31.9%, with a combined stake of $7291. The sharpest edge was on Vitoria -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 52.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 7 of 13 trades won, netting +$1189.10. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** RB Bragantino leading 1-0 at 46'. Tiago Volpi scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 11.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 53.1% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 9.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.

- **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 36.4% (52.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1: AI saw 88.5% vs market's 36.4% (52.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 39'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1: AI saw 87.7% vs market's 36.4% (51.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1.5: AI saw 92.5% vs market's 49.4% (43.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Vitoria -1.5: AI saw 92.3% vs market's 49.4% (42.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-1.90 (ROI: -0.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-19.97 (ROI: -0.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-61.03 (ROI: -1.8%)

Possession was 50–50 in RB Bragantino's deficit. RB Bragantino had 22 shots (4 on target) versus Vitoria's 7 (2 on target). Expected goals: RB Bragantino 2.4 — Vitoria 0.27. Corners: 7-6.